The Tories are going to win the General Election next year, there's an outside chance of the Lib-Dems securing enough to be worth hanging onto as coalition partners.
- Even Gordon Brown secured "swingback" in the last year of his Government: in his case at least 8 points. The Coalition, Tories especially will enjoy the same effect. Given the Tories are 4% behind (polls currently running 6%-1% labour leads), this alone will give them a small lead at the poll.
- The trend is already in the Tories' favour, though this alone will not extend Cameron's lease on Number 10.
- UKIP, currently polling 13-20%, are most likely to be disaffected Tories. (50% of their current polling are ex-Tories). It's obvious a fair number of these are 'lent' votes for the Euros. UKIP are not going to poll 18% in General election. You can give at least a third of the UKIP vote to the Tories for the GE. And there you have it. Enough for a Tory government. But that's not all.
- Labour is led by Miliband for whom voters will not turn out. Cameron at least isn't repellent.
- New incumbent effect generally helps Tories.
- The return of the shy Tory?
- Lib-dems are harder to shift than herpes. (This hurts Tories at least as much as Labour)
- The UK is the fastest-growing major developed economy in the world. The cost of living crisis is over, and the public may well be feeling a bit more optimistic come May 2015.
- The Tory election narrative will be a combination of "look, things are going well, don't let Labour ruin it" combined with "look at Ed Miliband, what a wally". This is powerful.